WHO, WHAT, WHEN, WHERE
On the opening Sunday of NFL action, the Miami Dolphins are traveling across the United States to take on the Los Angeles Chargers at 4:25 on Sunday, September 10th.
LAST MATCHUP
These two teams last faced each other in Week 14 of the 2022 season. In that matchup, the Chargers took a 23-17 win at home in primetime. The key story of this matchup was the Chargers defense, who came out looking completely different compared to their base coverages. Despite facing two of the fastest receivers in the league in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, the Chargers came out primarily in tight, press man coverage. This varied differently from their typical assignment, as they typically came out in 2-high zone coverage and shells similar to Vic Fangio, who is now the Miami Dolphins DC and previously mentored Chargers HC Brandon Staley. Despite Miami’s dangerous receivers (who have a reputation for succeeding vs. man coverage), Staley’s Chargers defense gave Miami plenty of trouble.
Mike McDaniel’s offense was essentially built on a counter, if that makes sense. Miami’s offensive staff knew that they likely wouldn’t be facing much man coverage (due to the threat of Hill and Waddle), and thus they designed their offense to beat zone coverage with spot throws. Combining the zone coverage, which was typically middle-of-field-open (MOFO), with Tua Tagovailoa’s short/intermediate accuracy and ability to manipulate zone defenders with his eyes, was largely a winning combination.
However, the Chargers decided to make a risky play scheme adjustment. Rather than the typical 2-high zone coverages that Staley rolls out most weeks, Los Angeles went the completely opposite route. They opted for middle-of-field-closed (MOFC) man coverage looks, such as cover-1 robber and cover-1 hole. They pressed Miami’s receivers at the line, throwing off the timing that so much of McDaniel’s offense is predicated upon. Then, they typically employed a robber or hole defender to essentially clog the middle of the field and defend crossers and in-breaking routes.
This was a key factor in what ended up being a total offensive breakdown for Miami. In combination with a long day for Miami’s offensive line and an inconsistency in rushing effectiveness/frequency, Miami’s offense only scored 17 points (with 7 of them coming on a fumble recovery TD for Tyreek Hill). Tua Tagovailoa went 10-28 passing, and Miami never found an offensive rhythm, despite keeping the game close.
The matchup between Miami’s defense and Los Angeles’ offense is largely a non-factor in the scope of week 1, as both teams replaced their coordinators on the aforementioned sides of the ball. Justin Herbert performed admirably last year, but it came against a vastly different scheme from the one he will face on September 10th. Josh Boyer ran the league’s most cover-0 blitzes last season, while Vic Fangio typically relies on pressure from his base front and typically runs two-high shells. As for the Chargers offense, Kellen Moore replaces Joe Lombardi as the OC. Lombardi was infamously conservative, while Moore ran one of the more creative offenses in the league during his tenure in Dallas.
KEYS FOR MIAMI
If Miami is to win this Sunday, they are going to have to perform at a high level in a few key areas. Here are the battles that I think are most important for McDaniel and the Dolphins if they are to beat the Chargers.
EXPOSE LA’s MAN COVERAGE
The Chargers, as I mentioned earlier, changed up their scheme significantly when they last faced Miami. This caught McDaniel & company off guard last season, but it is to be expected this time around, and thus, the sustainability of man coverage against the likes of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle is right to be questioned. Brandon Staley is playing a dangerous game, and it’s up to Miami (and specifically the duo of McDaniel and Tua Tagovailoa) to ensure that he pays the price for it. This means that we should expect more traditional man-beaters from Miami, and less spot throws. More out-breakers to each level of the field, switch releases to throw off assignments, and more physical play (combined with late breaks) from receivers. Miami already demonstrated that they had an increased emphasis on physicality in their preseason matchup with the Houston Texans, taking advantage of the leverage that defenders were showing them on the starters’ only touchdown drive. It’s up to McDaniel to ensure that those concepts are called against those coverages and it’s largely up to Tagovailoa to make the most of them.
IMPROVED OFFENSIVE LINE PLAY
This sounds obvious for just about any team, but as for Miami, this was one of their major struggles in the Week 14 matchup last season. Despite not blitzing often, Los Angeles’ defense got heavy pressure throughout the night, making Tua Tagovailoa’s job even more difficult. However, the run blocking may be even more crucial this time around. Miami was largely ineffective running the ball on early downs in the 2022 showdown, despite lighter boxes and bailing backers (which would usually correlate to easier runs). This set Miami up in more obvious passing situations (2nd and 3rd & long) that the Chargers were able to shut down. Miami’s offensive line (and running game as a whole) needs to be more effective, as to put Miami in more favorable situations and keep Staley’s defense guessing on later downs. It’s a lot harder to predict a 2nd & 5 play than it is a 2nd & 9. Miami needs to place themselves in more situations similar to the former than the latter if they are to keep LA on their toes. This will be a tall task without Terron Armstead, who has been ruled out, but Kendall Lamm was impressive in the preseason, and as the most likely option behind Armstead, his performance will be crucial.
STOP THE RUN
Kellen Moore was one of the most effective run-callers in the league throughout his tenure with Dallas, combining creativity with results. Moore’s Cowboys offense pounded the rock last season, placing sixth in carries and eighth in rushing yards. It is to be expected that this is going to be a major piece of his offense with Los Angeles, and Miami’s ability to stop the run is in question under Vic Fangio. Although they have two of the more talented interior defenders in the league in Christian Wilkins and Zach Sieler, neither fits the mold of what Vic Fangio typically looks for from those positions, specifically from a size profile. Both are undersized, and behind them, Miami lacks depth. Raekwon Davis’ performance is going to be crucial from the nose tackle spot, but UDFA Brandon Pili (who flashed at times in camp and preseason) is unproven, and may have to play a rotational role. Miami has the secondary, even without Jalen Ramsey, to hold their own against the Chargers weapons, but it’s important that Miami sets them behind schedule in down and distance, making them more predictable and easier to stop.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Despite last season's showing and the significant injuries (such as Armstead and Ramsey), Miami has more than enough to win this game. The sustainability of Los Angleles' man coverage is in question, and the Dolphins obviously have the weapons to exploit this. This matchup has and will always come down to the duo of Mike McDaniel and Tua Tagovailoa. If the each of them can put the other in favorable positions, Miami is in a really good position to win this game, just like they were for such a large portion of last year.
This has the potential to be a really fun showdown. Fun players and exciting coaches are littered on both sides, and it should make for an interesting week one from the perspectives of fans and analysts alike.
